NCAA for 10/22

Temple -13
Navy -11
Kansas +11.5

NFL Sunday

I believe the Oakland Raiders are due for another big week.  Although Peyton Hillis and his anger-fueled Browns are also due for a comeback week, I’m picking the Raiders to continue their success, especially against the run.  Colt McCoy will have to have a career day to beat the front seven of the Raiders.

I’m also going against my better judgement and I am doing a teaser with the Bills and New York Giants.  This is a pure perception play.  The public is on the Bills and HEAVILY on the over at 50 pts.  Although I think that this will be a medium to high scoring game, I don’t see both teams scoring every time down the field, and expect there to be a good balance between pass and rush selections to help mitigate clock usage.  End result?  Tease the line 6 pts on the under side and in favor of Buffalo.  If the Bills lose, they won’t lose by double digits and I see the game being a battle of 20′s.  24-20 Buffalo covers either way.

Oakland -6

Teaser: Bills +10, U/56

NCAA Winners

Greetings, sports fans. This weekend is where the rubber meets the road in football handicapping. The cream rises to the top and the pretenders are separated from the contenders in both the NFL and NCAA.

This Saturday I like three college match ups. First, northwestern has owned its matches with iowa, at least ATS, for the last 7 years. They are being spotted 7.5 pts as road dogs. The Wildcats have also done extremely well in the role of the road dog, covering 13 of their last 17, including a huge bowl game last year. Take the points.

Clemson should dominate their match against the backward Maryland squad. Lay those 7 pts and enjoy watching the Tigers dominate every quarter and every offensive category. The Terps need a win and the home crowd should help.

Wisconsin needs a statement game and will get the chance to run up the score against the Big 10 whipping boy, the Indiana Hoosiers. Lay 39.5 and don’t think twice. Indiana scores 10 at most and Wisconsin scores st will.

Northwestern +7.5

Clemson -8

Wisconsin -39.5

Sunday NFL

After two disappointing games from A&M and VA Tech, I am searching for the perfect game to make our weekend a decent effort. I believe I have found this game in Houston.

The Texans had no trouble dealing with Big Ben and the Steelers’ superior and diverse offensive weapons, and scored just enough to beat the Steelers’ staunch D. With the Raiders’ team struggling with weak pass defense, they will struggle against Shaub, who proves to be accurate and deadly, even without Andre Johnson prowling the secondary. I believe that the one-dimensional Raiders will not be competent enough to keep pace with the blistering passing O of the Texans. In short, I believe the final score will be somewhere in the neighborhood of Houston 27-Oakland 17. Houston will need to find a surrogate for Andre Johnson’s play-making, but I believe that they are a 5-10 pt winner today.

16-7-1 So far

College football is getting tighter, odds-wise.  The lines makers are getting to be able to set the lines by weeks 5-7 where they know the teams, tendencies, and abilities.  However, the odds makers must still consider the public and their tendencies in order to make money for the house.  Three lines stick out to me as minor discrepancies between public perception and fact.

Temple should dispatch with Ball St. with relative ease.  Texas A&M’s offense and pass rush should handle Texas Tech by two TDs and VA Tech should be able to dispatch with the ailing Hurricanes.

TEMPLE -9

TEXAS A&M -7

VA TECH -7

16-7 going into MNF

16-7, 9-5 NCAA, 7-2 NFL

Looking good after going 3-0 in the NFL yesterday.  I like the total tonight and here’s why:

There are already 36k bets online for the Monday Night Football game this week.  67% of the nation likes the over number put out by our friends in Las Vegas.  However, the line has moved DOWN to 40.5 from 42.  Curious.  It appears that Vegas is trying to get MORE people to bet the over, despite a large group of people who have already ventured a wager in that persuasion.  This leads me to believe that the 40.5 number is safe anyway, and there will be a 17-13 finish in the MNF future.  I love the under, period.  Never mind that Curtis Painter has had only a few snaps this season, never mind that the combined offense of these teams looks to be a yawner tomorrow night.  Never mind that the front seven for both teams will take away the run game and even adequate secondaries will play well enough to beat each other up all night.  When you see the line move in this way, with a movement to encourage the public trend, you know that the public is in for a world of hurt.

Indianapolis-Tampa Under 41

NFL Sunday

To keep things short and sweet…We need a huge NFL day to make up for our atrocious 1-2 yesterday.  I like three games, two totals and a side.

Green Bay has been giving up yardage in chunks and has been prone to some defensive breakdowns.  Meanwhile, Denver has been absolutely non-existent on the defensive side of things.  I like the over in the matchup as it is set at a conservative 46.5pts.

Dallas and Detroit have both displayed excellent rushing defenses and above average passing offensive numbers.  I like this game to go over its 46.5 number as well.  With the run game getting shut down, there will be an inordinate amount of passing going on.  This will not only extend the game, but will allow Tony Romo to do his normal 4th qtr thing and possibly throw to picks for six.

If New England’s D can show up enough to stop Darren McFadden and Co., I like the Pats to carry some of the burning anger that they felt last week (choke-tastic v. Bills) into this weeks matchup with “Da Raidahs.”  Belichick is simply too good to let a one dimensional team with a powderpuff QB anywhere close to a win, even on the road.  I like this game by two TD’s at least.

GB-DEN Over 46.5

Dallas-Detroit Over 46.5

New England -6.5